Moving and Retirement
Federal Reserve Notes: Gender Gaps in the Labor Market Widen Every Summer Contributing to Gender Disparities in Promotions and Pay
"Gender gaps in labor market activity are pervasive, longstanding, and a regular subject of policy debates. Relative to men, women tend to work fewer hours per week, more conventional hours, and fewer years over the course of their lives. These differences in the intensity and timing of work contribute to gender disparities in promotions and pay. But despite decades of research on this topic, little attention has been paid to the timing of work throughout the year. To motivate our inquiry, Figure 1 plots the monthly labor force participation rates of prime-age US women and men using non–seasonally adjusted data, with June, July, and August shaded gray. Summer after summer, women's labor force participation drops sharply while men's participation does not." more »
Jerome Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report; Strong Wage Growth; Inflation, Labor Market, Unemployment, Job Gains, 2 Percent Inflation
"...There is little sign of disinflation thus far in the category of core services excluding housing, which accounts for more than half of core consumer expenditures. To restore price stability, we will need to see lower inflation in this sector, and there will very likely be some softening in labor market conditions. Although nominal wage gains have slowed somewhat in recent months, they remain above what is consistent with 2 percent inflation and current trends in productivity. Strong wage growth is good for workers but only if it is not eroded by inflation...Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight. The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in January, its lowest level since 1969. Job gains remained very strong in January, while the supply of labor has continued to lag." more »
February’s Hot Data Releases: Governor Christopher J. Waller, Federal Reserve Board Frames a Few of the Issues Around Inflation and the Economic Outlook
"Retail sales for January also came in much stronger than expected, suggesting the economy was slowing less than it had appeared just a month earlier, a picture that was confirmed by data on personal spending, which represents almost 70 percent of gross domestic product. Continuing progress on inflation depends on lowering demand and moderating economic activity, and the retail sales and spending data suggest that progress on reducing aggregate demand may have stalled. Whether or not subsequent data confirm the setback in progress last month, the FOMC will do what is needed to reduce inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time. It is possible there may be some bumps on that path, but I assure you, the FOMC's dual mandate objectives will be achieved." more »
Congressional Budget Office: Federal Budget Deficit Totals $1.4 Trillion in 2023; Annual Deficits Average $2.0 Trillion Over the 2024–2033 Period
"The cumulative deficit over the 2023–2032 period that we now project is $3 trillion larger than we projected last May, mainly because of newly enacted legislation and changes to the economic forecast that boost interest costs and spending on mandatory programs. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 98 percent of GDP in 2023 to 118 percent in 2033 — an average increase of 2 percentage points per year. Over that period, the growth of interest costs and mandatory spending outpaces the growth of revenues and the economy, driving up debt. Those factors persist beyond 2033, pushing federal debt higher still, to 195 percent of GDP in 2053. The increase in mandatory spending is driven by rising costs for Social Security and Medicare. Total discretionary spending falls in relation to GDP. As the cost of financing the nation’s debt grows, net outlays for interest increase substantially." more »